NOTE:   The most important thing to remember about our RSI is that you want to let it LEAD.

We define "price trends" by the placement of recent closing prices in relation to an average of recent and old closing prices over a rolling fixed period of time (e.g. rolling 10 day and 18 day periods).  We call this measurement a "Moving average".   The trend is defined by the direction of the moving average values (up, down, sideways) and the placement of recent closing prices in relation to the moving average value(s).  

Through testing of various moving average values over decades of data and across multiple markets (40+ different markets) we have identified the two most sensitive moving averages in relation to price behavior.  Together,  these two moving averages tend to predict the direction on a longer-term basis better than any other combination.  These are the 10 and 18 day moving averages.  They are the most sensitive for detecting price trends on daily intervals (our daily price graphs as shown above).

In order to ensure an adequate sampling of data on our daily price graphs (adequate window) another study was done to determine the optimum number of data points to include in each daily snapshot (price graph).  This in-depth study determined 161 trading days provided the most robust look-back on daily intervals (daily price graphs).  This also ensures a minimum of 30 data points for each day of the week (a statistical requirement for our day of week seasonal studies).  The 161 day period ensures we always have at least 30 Monday's, 30 Tuesday's, 30 Wednesday's, 30 Thursday's and 30 Friday's.  The total of which is 150 by simply adding these figures together.  However, due to holiday's and other nuances with calendars, 150 days is not enough to ensure that there are always 30 samples for each day of the week.  The minimum total sample amount to ensure the minimum 30 sampling was determined to be 161 days.  This ensures 30 samples of each day of the week in any 161 day period across the entire history of all 45 markets we track and trade.   The statistical day of week studies are updated daily and provided for each market!  

Click here for current example of the day of week technicals along with an explanation on interpreting the data. 

   
    Our weekly price graphs (not shown here) monitor and evaluate intermediate term and longer-term trends as identified by our weekly moving averages (4wma and 9wma) which are not shown here.  The weekly price studies also included our highly proprietary OB/OS (over-bought/over-sold) FUA oscillator derived from a "de-trending" process using "residual data" obtained from our proprietary trend-line formula (the dashed trend-line shown on the daily trend/swing price graph). This formula generates an oscillator without skew (since the trend component is removed).  Such oscillators are very useful in predicting significant turning points based on true over-bought or over-sold conditions.  One of the benefits to our oscillator is that it does not go into over-bought or over-sold area's and stay there as traditional oscillators naturally do!  This provides members with a significant advantage over others using traditional oscillators (that tend to stick in over-bought or over-sold territory).  Again, ours does not do this!  

We incorporate our proprietary oscillator design (shown below) into our swing studies on both daily and weekly price intervals.  Shown directly below is our color sensitive daily Trend/Swing price graph.  The trends are colored. This coloring changes as the trends change.  When the market is moving higher (above its 18dma) the color of the closing prices are blue.  When the market enters into a transitional period or a "consolidation" period the color changes to green.  When the market is moving lower (below its 18dma for a specified length of time) the color of the closing prices turn red.  The proprietary oscillator (below the daily  trend/swing graph) is provided in all 45 markets and updated daily. It is available to members only and is not available as part of the free charts/graphs. A daily automated program filters through all 45 markets daily,  generating a one page report that lists ALL the markets with OB or OS conditions!   For more information on this powerful proprietary combination review the illustrations below.  

Interpreting and understanding the swing Graphs with the residual studies
By Floyd Upperman - January 2004

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