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Floyd
Upperman & Associates
Daily
Evening HOTpage Report
11/02/04
(ALERT!
Due to a flaw in the software, the above date stamp may be reported
incorrectly in older
reports (pre 2000). The actual date of the report always
corresponds to the file-date-name
displayed on the report page which you click on to pull up the
report)
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PREMIUM
MEMBERS PRIVATE MESSAGE BOARD
Please
remember that commodity trading is risky and past performance in no
guarantee of future results. There are no promises or
guarantees made in this report whatsoever. In addition, futures
trading is not suitable for everyone. The information provided
herein are the opinions of the author. While every
effort is made to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the data,
no promises or guarantees are made.
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"It
is more likely the truth will be discovered by few than by
many"
Rene Descartes
"Advances
are made by answering questions.
Discoveries are made by questioning answers."
Bernard Haisch

From the Desk of Floyd W. Upperman Jr.
My new email address is floyd@upperman.com. |
Good evening everyone!
The U.S. election is proceeding
smoothly at this point. It's still fairly close but it appears
that Bush has the lead at this point. More to follow later of
course (we can talk about the final results tomorrow).
Friday's
employment Report Forecast:
Nonfarm payrolls Consensus
Forecast for Oct 2004 are 160,000.
The Range is 85,000 to 225,000.
* 180k and higher will be
supportive for the market in my opinion.
Lets talk about
the markets now! FYI - Tonight's review will be somewhat
brief as I am watching the results on the election as well. I
do have some things to go over however so lets get to
work!
Plungers: We had several new plunger formations
today! Be sure to review the automated plunger report for the
suggested entry (price range) and suggested stops. Several of
these look very interesting!
Stock indices, S&P500 and Russell
- We had reverse plungers today in the S&P, Russell, Emini and
in the Dow. Tomorrow's trade will be interesting.
Remember, if a reverse plunger fails (i.e. we close above the
plunger high) this creates a buy signal.
Tomorrows
market:
Obviously we have the election going on now
and the results are coming in slowly. Overall it continues to
be a close race. Looking ahead to Friday we have the
employment data for October of course. Overall I remain
bullish right now but today's RP may cause a short-term setback
(pull-back). Obviously I am taking note of these
formations!
Coffee
(KC) - I reviewed the
recent plunger formations here in coffee in detail in recent reports
as well and again I really
recommend you review these very important discussions.
Why? Because I discussed the
rules regarding overlapping plungers which I haven't really talked a
lot about (although they are covered basically in the plunger
manual, but you have to think about it).
Markets SETUP or setting up for Long positions:
Markets SETUP
or setting up for Short Positions:
LONG
POSITIONS:
SHORT
POSITIONS:
SPREADS:
Baskets:
OPTIONS:
Swing
Trades (For Advanced
Traders)
-
Swing Approach "A"
- The standard trend approach. My favorite.
- Swing Approach "B" - The
standard counter-trend approach.
Swing
trade buys:
Swing
trade sells:
Gold
(GC) -
Gold prices moved under the 18dma today and closed under it!. Lets look at
the daily chart from yesterday first and then today directly under
it.



Gold continues lower
following the recent RP Until
we close above this area I will look for prices to move lower
(short-term). Furthermore, on a longer-term basis Gold
is currently an IMPA sell selection! It is not fully setup
yet, and won't be fully setup until we close under the 18dma for 2
consecutive days (final component for an IMPA sell setup).
However, yesterday I noted that I am looking at this market via a potential early entry
on the "M" pattern formation with the RP as noted above
and in last night's report. Again, the early entry points provide lower monetary risk
(that's the advantage). The disadvantage is that they are not
as reliable (we understand that). Its a risk however often
worth taking. The most reliable entry however is to
enter with the trend (and you can do that by entering on a stop as
well). However, one of my favorite methods on entering
new trends is to enter on a correction to or through the 18dma after
the new trend has already been established. Stops in this case
are generally a little wider than an early entry stop, but again the
trade tends to work out more often.
SILVER closed lower
today with Gold as well. We have had recent reverse
plunger formations in both GC and SI as well. And both are
also IMPA sell selections too! Lets look at Silver now!

Here's today's move lower in Silver (following the recent RP shown
above)!

ALL Stops:
ALL STOPS on all positions are now STOP-CLOSE-ONLY and have been
since I officially updated our procedures in 2001 and 2002. I discuss this
in detail in the June 2003 workshop video which I highly recommend
to all serious traders using these strategies. To
order the DVD version on special for a few more days click here.
The new stop-close-only stop
method is far superior than our original "resting stop"
method. It makes a big difference!
Stop close only manual order. You
do not have to place the order as "Stop close only" in
order to use the closing price for your stop. What I
recommend is that you simply wait until the close to evaluate your
stop. If y our stop is
exceeded on the
close (based on the official closing price as reports on our graphs)
then we simply exit on the open of the next day session (within the first 15 min of trade)! We
have always
managed our positions (stops) this way in options and spreads because
they trade to thinly for intra-day resting stop orders. Now
all positions should be managed this way. Again, if stopped out,
you want to be out the next morning (next day-session) and within the
first 15 minutes.
Stocks
& Mutual Funds:
Turning
bullish some stocks and some of the Techs.
I am interested in QQQ, QCOM and LTD (which is not a tech
stock, but its a company that is doing well in this environment and
may continue to do so, in fact it may soon breakout to a new
high).
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*
S&P Trades are for high risk traders only. This
market is extremely risky
|
Be sure to visit the
discussion board daily! I am there daily answering
questions and assisting members (with position trades and day
trades). My presence on the message board overlaps my
reporting here this even if you cannot visit the board during the
day, you can visit in the evening! You don't have to post a
thing as well. You can simply review all the posts that took
place during the day (something I recommend). Some days are
more active that others of course. I recommend checking in
with the board daily!
Very
Respectfully,
Floyd
Our new Stock
Market Research Site address is:
This is new and under development
www.equitiesresearch.org
Position
Management and Money Management Portion of the System - Remember never
to risk more than 10% of your risk capital on any one single trade.
We must never adjust the stop to accommodate the 10% risk.
The stop needs to be placed strategically based on the market, and
the market alone, not what you can afford to lose. I can't
stress the importance of this enough. Once the stop
point is determined, the risk can be calculated. If the risk
is to large, pass on the trade and wait for a lower risk trade.
Click
here to review our video / manual products and order!
All orders are shipped priority mail, on the following business day.
Special
backup site - The backup
site provides a second source for our charts and graphs as a back up
when/if something
goes wrong with the main site or main computer driving the data to
the main site. The address to the backup site is http://www.cotdata.com. Your
discussion board username and password combination is required for
access - If you do not have discussion board access, email Floyd for a
special username / password combination for the backup site.
*
The hotpage does not trade all the setups, only certain ones
are taken and they are all for teaching purposes, so I can
demonstrate to you (live) how to trade using our system, methods,
rules and data. My goal is to teach you how to trade using our
strategies, not to trade for you.
"Seldom
does an individual exceed his own expectations."
"Shun
passion, fold the hands of thrift. Sit still, and Truth is
near: Suddenly it will uplift your eyelids to the sphere: Wait
a little, you shall see the portraiture of things to be."
Ralph
Waldo Emerson
"When it comes to success in trading,
being right most of the time is not nearly as important as
is being procedurally right all of the time! "
Floyd W. Upperman Jr. CTA |