Floyd Upperman & Associates
Daily Evening HOTpage Report
11/02/04
(ALERT!  Due to a flaw in the software, the above date stamp may be reported incorrectly in older 
reports (pre 2000).  The actual date of the report always corresponds to the file-date-name
displayed on the report page which you click on to pull up the report)

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Please remember that commodity trading is risky and past performance in no guarantee of future results.  There are no promises or guarantees made in this report whatsoever. In addition, futures trading is not suitable for everyone.  The information provided herein are the opinions of the author.  While every effort  is made to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the data,  no promises or guarantees are made. 

"It is more likely the truth will be discovered by few than by many"
Rene Descartes

"
Advances are made by answering questions.
Discoveries are made by questioning answers."
Bernard Haisch


From the Desk of Floyd W. Upperman Jr.
My new email address is floyd@upperman.com



Good evening everyone! 


The U.S. election is proceeding smoothly at this point.  It's still fairly close but it appears that Bush has the lead at this point.  More to follow later of course (we can talk about the final results tomorrow).  

Friday's employment Report Forecast:

Nonfarm payrolls Consensus Forecast for Oct 2004 are 160,000.
The Range is 85,000 to 225,000.   
* 180k and higher will be supportive for the market in my opinion.

Lets talk about the markets now!   FYI - Tonight's review will be somewhat brief as I am watching the results on the election as well.  I do have some things to go over however so lets get to work!  


Plungers: 
We had several new plunger formations today!  Be sure to review the automated plunger report for the suggested entry (price range) and suggested stops.  Several of these look very interesting! 


Stock indices, S&P500 and Russell   - We had reverse plungers today in the S&P, Russell, Emini and in the Dow.  Tomorrow's trade will be interesting.  Remember, if a reverse plunger fails (i.e. we close above the plunger high) this creates a buy signal.  


Tomorrows market:
    Obviously we have the election going on now and the results are coming in slowly.  Overall it continues to be a close race.   Looking ahead to Friday we have the employment data for October of course.  Overall I remain bullish right now but today's RP may cause a short-term setback (pull-back).   Obviously I am taking note of these formations! 


Coffee (KC) - I reviewed the recent plunger formations here in coffee in detail in recent reports as well and again I really recommend you review these very important discussions.  Why?  Because I discussed the rules regarding overlapping plungers which I haven't really talked a lot about (although they are covered basically in the plunger manual, but you have to think about it). 



Markets SETUP or setting up for Long positions:
 

 


Markets SETUP or setting up for Short  Positions:




LONG POSITIONS:
 


SHORT POSITIONS:  


SPREADS:

Baskets: 

OPTIONS:  

 

Swing Trades (For Advanced Traders)
-
  Swing Approach "A" - The standard trend approach.  My favorite.   
-  Swing Approach "B" - The standard counter-trend approach.  


Swing trade buys:


Swing trade sells:

Gold (GC) -  Gold prices moved under the 18dma today and closed under it!.  Lets look at the daily chart from yesterday first and then today directly under it.  




 

 

 

Gold continues lower following the recent RP  Until we close above this area I will look for prices to move lower (short-term).   Furthermore, on a longer-term basis Gold is currently an IMPA sell selection!  It is not fully setup yet, and won't be fully setup until we close under the 18dma for 2 consecutive days (final component for an IMPA sell setup).  However, yesterday I noted that I am looking at this market via a potential early entry on the "M" pattern formation with the RP as noted above and in last night's report.  Again,  the early entry points provide lower monetary risk (that's the advantage).  The disadvantage is that they are not as reliable (we understand that).  Its a risk however often worth taking.   The most reliable entry however is to enter with the trend (and you can do that by entering on a stop as well).  However,  one of my favorite methods on entering new trends is to enter on a correction to or through the 18dma after the new trend has already been established.  Stops in this case are generally a little wider than an early entry stop, but again the trade tends to work out more often.  


SILVER closed lower today with Gold as well.  We have had recent reverse plunger formations in both GC and SI as well.  And both are also IMPA sell selections too!  Lets look at Silver now! 

 


Here's today's move lower in Silver (following the recent RP shown above)! 

 

ALL Stops:
ALL STOPS on all positions are now STOP-CLOSE-ONLY and have been since I officially updated our procedures in 2001 and 2002.  I discuss this in detail in the June 2003 workshop video which I highly recommend to all serious traders using these strategies.  To order the DVD version on special for a few more days click hereThe new stop-close-only stop method is far superior than our original "resting stop" method.  It makes a big difference!  

Stop close only manual order. You do not have to place the order as "Stop close only" in order to use the closing price for your stop.   What I recommend is that you simply wait until the close to evaluate your stop.  If y our stop is exceeded on the close (based on the official closing price as reports on our graphs) then we simply exit on the open of the next day session (within the first 15 min of trade)!  We have always managed our positions (stops) this way in options and spreads because they trade to thinly for intra-day resting stop orders.  Now all positions should be managed this way.  Again,  if stopped out, you want to be out the next morning (next day-session) and within the first 15 minutes.


Stocks & Mutual Funds: 

Turning bullish some stocks and some of the Techs.  I am interested in  QQQ, QCOM and LTD (which is not a tech stock, but its a company that is doing well in this environment and may continue to do so, in fact it may soon breakout to a new high).   

* S&P Trades are for high risk traders only.  This market is extremely risky


Be sure to visit the discussion board daily!  I am there daily answering questions and assisting members (with position trades and day trades).   My presence on the message board overlaps my reporting here this even if you cannot visit the board during the day, you can visit in the evening!  You don't have to post a thing as well.  You can simply review all the posts that took place during the day (something I recommend).  Some days are more active that others of course.  I recommend checking in with the board daily! 

Very Respectfully,
Floyd

 Our new Stock Market Research Site address is:
 This is new and under development
 www.equitiesresearch.org

 

Position Management and Money Management Portion of the System - Remember never to risk more than 10% of your risk capital on any one single trade. We must never adjust the stop to accommodate the 10% risk.  The stop needs to be placed strategically based on the market, and the market alone, not what you can afford to lose.  I can't stress the importance of this enough.   Once the stop point is determined, the risk can be calculated.  If the risk is to large, pass on the trade and wait for a lower risk trade. 

Our two important Rules:  Control risks & manage profits!
Click here for Risk Matrix   Click here for 50% rule.

Click here to review our video / manual products and order!
All orders are shipped priority mail, on the following business day.

Special backup site - The backup site provides a second source for our charts and graphs as a back up when/if something goes wrong with the main site or main computer driving the data to the main site.  The address to the backup site is http://www.cotdata.com.  Your discussion board username and password combination is required for access - If you do not have discussion board access, email Floyd for a special username / password combination for the backup site. 

* The hotpage does not trade all the setups,  only certain ones are taken and they are all for teaching purposes,  so I can demonstrate to you (live) how to trade using our system, methods, rules and data.  My goal is to teach you how to trade using our strategies, not to trade for you.

"Seldom does an individual exceed his own expectations." 

"Shun passion, fold the hands of thrift.  Sit still, and Truth is near:  Suddenly it will uplift your eyelids to the sphere: Wait a little, you shall see the portraiture of things to be."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

"When it comes to success in trading, being right most of the time is not nearly as important as is being procedurally right all of the time! "
Floyd W. Upperman Jr. CTA

"Every man's work, whether it be literature or music or pictures or 
architecture or anything else,  is always a portrait of himself."
Samuel Butler