Floyd Upperman & Associates
Daily Evening HOTpage Report
11/08/04
(ALERT! Due to a flaw in the software, the above date stamp may be reported incorrectly in older
reports (pre 2000). The actual date of the report always corresponds to the file-date-name
displayed on the report page which you click on to pull up the report)

Please remember that commodity trading is risky and past performance in no guarantee of future results. There are no promises or guarantees made in this report whatsoever. In addition, futures trading is not suitable for everyone. The information provided herein are the opinions of the author. While every effort is made to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the data, no promises or guarantees are made.

"It is more likely the truth will be discovered by few than by many"
Rene Descartes

"Advances are made by answering questions.
Discoveries are made by questioning answers."
Bernard Haisch

From the Desk of Floyd W. Upperman Jr.
My new email address is floyd@upperman.com.

Tonight's report will be brief as I am fighting a cold. The temperature dropped like a rock last night and it's beginning to feel like winter out this way now.   Lets get to work.

Stock indices, S&P500 and Russell   - These markets pulled back very slightly overall today. Energy on the other hand didnt bounce at all! In fact Natural Gas (NG), which we are bearish, dropped another $3540 today (and that's profits into the pockets of those still managing shorts here). Overall I remain bullish stock indices via the Q4 rally which has already begun and bearish energy (following the recent reverse plungers in crude and natural gas as well as the IMPA sell setup in NG).

Tomorrows market:    I am looking for this market (equities) to go higher, it might resume the trend up tomorrow (provided there are no negative surprises out of Iraq with the current offensive as well as nothing negative out of the middle-east).   Be sure to see my comments below regarding LTD (a recent stock recommendation I provided several weeks back). This stock has performed well and in fact was higher again today.

Coffee (KC) - Last week I said there was a chance in here that this market may try to move higher again today. It did last week (up $1462.50 on the week) and the gains continued today as the market finished up $581.25 today (#3 on our daily activity report). The price structure is mildly bullish now. The market is also back above the 18dma (was last week) and of course we are coming off the recent IMPA buy selection to boot (all of this is supportive for higher prices). Thus it may continue higher.

The Russell and the Nasdaq are IMPA buy setups. These markets have been moving up already with the Russell leading the way higher. The Russell has been an IMPA buy setup for some time now. We had an excellent "W" buy formation in conjunction with a FP outside day up combination (1-2 double-whammy buy) several weeks ago (the "W" occurred in August). In addition we had the detrended oscillator triggered for a BUY too. Again all of this was setup during the month of August! Check it out if you have not done that yet. In the S&P500 we had an excellent FP on October 25th and then we had a failed RP this week which created another buy!

Swing Trades (For Advanced Traders)
- Swing Approach "A" - The standard trend approach. My favorite.
- Swing Approach "B" - The standard counter-trend approach.

Gold (GC) - Down slightly today but still above the 18dma. The uncertainty surrounding Arafat's health remains an issue in my opinion (a big concern). Overall however I still remain bearish but we don't have an entry right now and price is back above the 18dma now thus I am not short at the moment. Longer-term I continue to hold bullion of course but that's another strategy altogether however (part of my diversification strategy).

ALL Stops:
ALL STOPS on all positions are now STOP-CLOSE-ONLY and have been since I officially updated our procedures in 2001 and 2002. I discuss this in detail in the June 2003 workshop video which I highly recommend to all serious traders using these strategies. To order the DVD version on special for a few more days click here. The new stop-close-only stop method is far superior than our original "resting stop" method. It makes a big difference!

Stop close only manual order. You do not have to place the order as "Stop close only" in order to use the closing price for your stop. What I recommend is that you simply wait until the close to evaluate your stop. If y our stop is exceeded on the close (based on the official closing price as reports on our graphs) then we simply exit on the open of the next day session (within the first 15 min of trade)! We have always managed our positions (stops) this way in options and spreads because they trade to thinly for intra-day resting stop orders. Now all positions should be managed this way. Again, if stopped out, you want to be out the next morning (next day-session) and within the first 15 minutes.

I remain bullish some stocks for now. These are QQQ, QCOM and LTD (the Limited is based in Ohio). LTD did very well again today folks and again I am pleased with its performance over the last several weeks (its gone from roughly $ 21 to $27 now since we began talking about it). Today's high was roughly $27.30 and we closed $26.78. This stock pushed to multi-year highs today which I view as significant by itself. I also have some additional news to share regarding Limited (LTD). The company has extended the price on a corporate buy-back to between $25.25 and $29 a share (up from $21.75 to $25 recently). Obviously that is bullish (they want the shares). LTD is also reporting an upcoming dividend ($500 Million) to be distributed to all remaining share-holders after the buy-back is completed. I view this as bullish too. The company raised its outlook on 3rd quarter profits this week and is reporting Nov. 18th I believe.

FYI - If you did buy LTD recently, if your brokerage firm contacts you with an offer to buy them back for as much as $29 a share, for now I recommend holding onto them. I believe this stock is on its way to $30 and higher. I believe this is a decent longer-term hold (probably will do very well over the next 5 years+). If you want to take profits however I recommend it at $30 or higher (initial profits if long in here from $22 to 25). Again we closed $26.78 today. I

Be sure to visit the discussion board daily! I am there daily answering questions and assisting members (with position trades and day trades). My presence on the message board overlaps my reporting here this even if you cannot visit the board during the day, you can visit in the evening! You don't have to post a thing as well. You can simply review all the posts that took place during the day (something I recommend). Some days are more active that others of course. I recommend checking in with the board daily!

Our new Stock Market Research Site address is:
This is new and under development
www.equitiesresearch.org

Position Management and Money Management Portion of the System - Remember never to risk more than 10% of your risk capital on any one single trade. We must never adjust the stop to accommodate the 10% risk. The stop needs to be placed strategically based on the market, and the market alone, not what you can afford to lose. I can't stress the importance of this enough. Once the stop point is determined, the risk can be calculated. If the risk is to large, pass on the trade and wait for a lower risk trade.

Our two important Rules: Control risks & manage profits!
Click here for Risk Matrix Click here for 50% rule.

Special backup site - The backup site provides a second source for our charts and graphs as a back up when/if something goes wrong with the main site or main computer driving the data to the main site. The address to the backup site is http://www.cotdata.com. Your discussion board username and password combination is required for access - If you do not have discussion board access, email Floyd for a special username / password combination for the backup site.

* The hotpage does not trade all the setups, only certain ones are taken and they are all for teaching purposes, so I can demonstrate to you (live) how to trade using our system, methods, rules and data. My goal is to teach you how to trade using our strategies, not to trade for you.

"Shun passion, fold the hands of thrift. Sit still, and Truth is near: Suddenly it will uplift your eyelids to the sphere: Wait a little, you shall see the portraiture of things to be."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

"When it comes to success in trading, being right most of the time is not nearly as important as is being procedurally right all of the time! "
Floyd W. Upperman Jr. CTA