Floyd Upperman & Associates
Daily Evening HOTpage Report
11/11/04
(ALERT! Due to a flaw in the software, the above date stamp may be reported incorrectly in older
reports (pre 2000). The actual date of the report always corresponds to the file-date-name
displayed on the report page which you click on to pull up the report)

Please remember that commodity trading is risky and past performance in no guarantee of future results. There are no promises or guarantees made in this report whatsoever. In addition, futures trading is not suitable for everyone. The information provided herein are the opinions of the author. While every effort is made to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the data, no promises or guarantees are made.

"It is more likely the truth will be discovered by few than by many"
Rene Descartes

"Advances are made by answering questions.
Discoveries are made by questioning answers."
Bernard Haisch

From the Desk of Floyd W. Upperman Jr.
My new email address is floyd@upperman.com.

First of all tonight I want to express my gratitude to everyone of you veterans out there reading this. Thank you.

Because of today's holiday some markets were closed. This includes interest rate markets and the currencies. You'll notice these markets are only updated to the 10th on our charts, that's because they were closed today.

The energy markets turned right back down today folks as these markets continue moving lower just as we have discussed (following the recent slew of plungers which signaled a turning point or shift across the board). Those short NG following the 10/27 RP (using the entry range suggested in the plunger report) picked up an additional $4420 in profits today as natural gas (NG) continues down. Natural Gas by the way is an excellent trending market, even though thin it tends to hug the trend (18dma) very well just as Lumber as done in recent years too. We've had great trading opportunities in both Lumber and Natural Gas over these last several years and obviously including this year as well.

On the top of today's activity report we find the Russell bucking today's "day of week" seasonal bias. Today's up close (on a Thursday) moved the 161-day trend up to 44% on Thursday's now. We talked about that yesterday. This market (Russell 2000) has been an excellent official buy since August and as far as I can tell this trend up appears very likely to continue (I really don't see anything stopping it right now unless something unexpected happens).

Note the rolls today in the energy. Time to roll into the Jan contracts in the crude if you are short following the sells of 10/27. We remain in the Dec. in NG for now (which again gained another $4420 for those short today).

Stock indices, S&P500 and Russell   - Again as mentioned above the Russell posted another respectable gain today, this time a whopping $2925! This puts those still long their remaining 50% up $5050 on the week. Overall I remain bullish equities via the Q4 rally which we expected.

Tomorrows market:   We may pull back slightly tomorrow or next week or we might continue moving higher without pause as well folks, that's the situation. I believe there was a good bit of money sitting on the sidelines prior to the election. We are now seeing that money come back into the market post the election process, which we believed would happen if the election went smoothly (regardless of who won). And that's basically what's happened. Thus overall I am still looking for equities to go higher but as I mentioned here we certainly may pull-back at some point too. Obviously a slight pause or pull-back this week or next remains in the cards. However, I want to make it absolutely 100% clear that I remain firmly bullish!

Coffee (KC) - Higher again today by $56.25, which puts this market up $1200 on the week thus far. Again last week I said there was a chance in here that this market may try to move higher. The price structure is increasingly bullish and above the 18dma (was last week). We are also coming off a recent IMPA buy selection too (supportive for higher prices as well). This market may continue moving higher for the time being (still). We did not get follow through today on yesterday's reverse plunger but the plunger did not fail either. That means its still valid. We would need a close above yesterday's RP high to cause the plunger to fail and turn into another buy. Thus here's how you can trade that - Simply buy on a stop above yesterday's RP high. Your stop would be under the RP low (that's the logical location). If we close above the RP high this generates another buy signal and should cause the market to move higher on technical buying (via other trading systems that pick up on the same or similar formations). If you were long coming into the week and remain long a portion of your initial position (for a swing trade) I recommend you use a breakeven or better stop now on your remaining position (you should be out of your first 50% with profits).

The Russell and the Nasdaq are IMPA buy setups. These two markets have been moving up with the Russell leading the way higher. The Russell has been an IMPA buy setup for some time now as is the Nasdaq as well. Both finished higher today!

We also had an excellent "W" buy formation in conjunction with a FP outside day up combination (1-2 double-whammy buy) several weeks ago (the "W" occurred in August) in the Russell 2000. In addition we had the detrended oscillator triggered for a BUY too. Again all of this was setup during the month of August! Check it out if you have not done that yet. In the S&P500 we had an excellent FP on October 25th and then we had a failed RP last week which created another buy! The markets have gone up since all this and all of this occurred in conjunction with our bullish Q4 outlook (which was discussed earlier in the year).

Swing Trades (For Advanced Traders)
- Swing Approach "A" - The standard trend approach. My favorite.
- Swing Approach "B" - The standard counter-trend approach.

Gold (GC) - Up slightly today as the closing price remains above the 18dma. Short-term I am looking for Gold prices to decline briefly. Longer-term I continue to hold bullion of course but that's another strategy altogether however (part of my diversification strategy).

ALL Stops:
ALL STOPS on all positions are now STOP-CLOSE-ONLY and have been since I officially updated our procedures in 2001 and 2002. I discuss this in detail in the June 2003 workshop video which I highly recommend to all serious traders using these strategies. To order the DVD version on special for a few more days click here. The new stop-close-only stop method is far superior than our original "resting stop" method. It makes a big difference!

Stop close only manual order. You do not have to place the order as "Stop close only" in order to use the closing price for your stop. What I recommend is that you simply wait until the close to evaluate your stop. If y our stop is exceeded on the close (based on the official closing price as reports on our graphs) then we simply exit on the open of the next day session (within the first 15 min of trade)! We have always managed our positions (stops) this way in options and spreads because they trade to thinly for intra-day resting stop orders. Now all positions should be managed this way. Again, if stopped out, you want to be out the next morning (next day-session) and within the first 15 minutes.

I remain bullish some stocks which are QQQ and LTD (the Limited is based in Ohio).

FYI - If you did buy LTD recently, if your brokerage firm contacts you with an offer to buy them back for as much as $29 a share, for now I recommend holding onto them. I believe this stock is on its way to $30 and higher. I believe this is a decent longer-term buy and hold (probably will do very well over the next 5+ years provided there are no huge negative disasters). If you want to take profits I recommend it at $30 or higher (initial profits if long in here from $22 to 25).

Be sure to visit the discussion board daily! I am there daily answering questions and assisting members (with position trades and day trades). My presence on the message board overlaps my reporting here this even if you cannot visit the board during the day, you can visit in the evening! You don't have to post a thing as well. You can simply review all the posts that took place during the day (something I recommend). Some days are more active that others of course. I recommend checking in with the board daily!

Our new Stock Market Research Site address is:
This is new and under development
www.equitiesresearch.org

Position Management and Money Management Portion of the System - Remember never to risk more than 10% of your risk capital on any one single trade. We must never adjust the stop to accommodate the 10% risk. The stop needs to be placed strategically based on the market, and the market alone, not what you can afford to lose. I can't stress the importance of this enough. Once the stop point is determined, the risk can be calculated. If the risk is to large, pass on the trade and wait for a lower risk trade.

Our two important Rules: Control risks & manage profits!
Click here for Risk Matrix Click here for 50% rule.

Special backup site - The backup site provides a second source for our charts and graphs as a back up when/if something goes wrong with the main site or main computer driving the data to the main site. The address to the backup site is http://www.cotdata.com. Your discussion board username and password combination is required for access - If you do not have discussion board access, email Floyd for a special username / password combination for the backup site.

* The hotpage does not trade all the setups, only certain ones are taken and they are all for teaching purposes, so I can demonstrate to you (live) how to trade using our system, methods, rules and data. My goal is to teach you how to trade using our strategies, not to trade for you.

"Shun passion, fold the hands of thrift. Sit still, and Truth is near: Suddenly it will uplift your eyelids to the sphere: Wait a little, you shall see the portraiture of things to be."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

"When it comes to success in trading, being right most of the time is not nearly as important as is being procedurally right all of the time! "
Floyd W. Upperman Jr. CTA