Floyd Upperman & Associates
Daily Evening HOTpage Report
11/17/04
(ALERT! Due to a flaw in the software, the above date stamp may be reported incorrectly in older
reports (pre 2000). The actual date of the report always corresponds to the file-date-name
displayed on the report page which you click on to pull up the report)

Please remember that commodity trading is risky and past performance in no guarantee of future results. There are no promises or guarantees made in this report whatsoever. In addition, futures trading is not suitable for everyone. The information provided herein are the opinions of the author. While every effort is made to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the data, no promises or guarantees are made.

"It is more likely the truth will be discovered by few than by many"
Rene Descartes

"Advances are made by answering questions.
Discoveries are made by questioning answers."
Bernard Haisch

From the Desk of Floyd W. Upperman Jr.
My new email address is floyd@upperman.com.

I hope the sampling of my reports has been helpful and insightful. This should provide you with a basic understanding of the service I provide and the detail that goes into it.

Stock indices, S&P500 and Russell - Yesterday I noted that this was a pull back and that if was likely a buying opportunity. The Q4 rally is likely to continue and did indeed resume today. I do remain bullish the Russell (IMPA buy setup), the Nasdaq (IMPA buy setup), the Dow and the S&P500 as well (both of these are not official IMPA buy setups but the trends are up and we have had recent bullish structures, such as the forward plungers in October (10/20, 10/25 and 10/27).

Tomorrows market: Possibly higher again. We remain above the 18dma's across the board and again I remain bullish. I recommend using pull-backs to add to positions.

Coffee (KC) - Pretty decent move higher today following yesterday's brief but sharp pull-back.

As you know I have been bullish coffee for the last few weeks as the structure has been increasingly bullish. Overall nothing has changed with that except for the fact that the market is now faced with a more difficult road immediately ahead following Monday's explosive move higher. Typically at this type of juncture the market pauses and pulls back briefly (which is what occurred Monday). Now the market is likely to move sideways before the next leg (which may very well be up as well). We closed roughly 91.65 today (I don't have the official closing price yet) but this is close.

Cotton (CT)- Yesterday's report contained a very thorough discussion on the situation in cotton. We did close higher today by roughly 48 points (closing about 42.60 based on the last price I have in it, basis March 05 of course). Like coffee, the structure in cotton is becoming increasingly bullish as well. I will leave the weekly price graph below (from yesterday) along with the weekly proprietary net-commercial (UCL/LCL) graph so you can review that further if you so desire. If not long you can get long on the "W" using the contract lows for your protective stop. you may also wait for another FP (ideal early form of entry) or enter after the 18dma 2-day close, and one last entry (one of my favorites) is to enter after the 2-day 18dma close on a pull-back back to the 18dma (have your buy order resting there).

Let me also say something about commodity prices in general and inflation. Looking forward I believe we could experience a degree of inflation during 2005 - 2010 like we have not seen in quite some time. Commodities in general in my opinion are on the rise. I do not expect crude to return to the old price range anytime soon, and energy as well as metals in general are likely to increase dollar value as the dollar may continue to struggle due to the size of the current deficit along with the Money supply.

I believe the potential exists for large moves in several commodities (including grains between 2005 - 2008). If things don't go perfectly this spring (with U.S. planting in soybeans and corn) we could see a very large and largely unexpected price surge in 2005 and beyond. In fact foods in general (including grains) are likely to experience marked increases in price (inflation) across the board (2005-2010) as world-wide global demand continues to surge teetering on the verge of outstripping global supply. We are living in a day and age where huge corporations control what we eat, how much we pay, and just about everything pertaining to everyday living. The bottom line is that I believe 2005-2010 may bring some of the most explosive opportunities in commodities markets in 30 years.

As promised below is the UCL/LCL graph for Cotton. If this does not show you the power of the IMPA, which you must understand is completely derived from data totally unrelated to price (absolutely amazing and truly powerful) then nothing probably ever will and in this case you might simply be better off trading with the common tools (stochastic, fig jib, and so forth). I don't use any of that stuff myself and I don't know of anyone successful that does. Why would you want to look at that when we have REAL data that provided absolutely amazing results. Lets look.

The Russell and the Nasdaq are IMPA buy setups. These two markets have been moving up with the Russell leading the way higher and both are IMPA buy setups. I remain bullish both!

Markets SETUP or setting up for Short Positions:

Swing Trades (For Advanced Traders)
- Swing Approach "A" - The standard trend approach. My favorite.
- Swing Approach "B" - The standard counter-trend approach.

Gold (GC) - Up again today as the closing price remains above the 18dma. For now the trend is higher and that's the path of least resistance. I don't recommend any shorts right now.

ALL Stops:
ALL STOPS on all positions are now STOP-CLOSE-ONLY and have been since I officially updated our procedures in 2001 and 2002. I discuss this in detail in the June 2003 workshop video which I highly recommend to all serious traders using these strategies. To order the DVD version on special for a few more days click here. The new stop-close-only stop method is far superior than our original "resting stop" method. It makes a big difference!

Stop close only manual order. You do not have to place the order as "Stop close only" in order to use the closing price for your stop. What I recommend is that you simply wait until the close to evaluate your stop. If y our stop is exceeded on the close (based on the official closing price as reports on our graphs) then we simply exit on the open of the next day session (within the first 15 min of trade)! We have always managed our positions (stops) this way in options and spreads because they trade to thinly for intra-day resting stop orders. Now all positions should be managed this way. Again, if stopped out, you want to be out the next morning (next day-session) and within the first 15 minutes.

I remain bullish some stocks which are QQQ and LTD (the Limited is based in Ohio).

Our new Stock Market Research Site address is:
This is new and under development
www.equitiesresearch.org

Position Management and Money Management Portion of the System - Remember never to risk more than 10% of your risk capital on any one single trade. We must never adjust the stop to accommodate the 10% risk. The stop needs to be placed strategically based on the market, and the market alone, not what you can afford to lose. I can't stress the importance of this enough. Once the stop point is determined, the risk can be calculated. If the risk is to large, pass on the trade and wait for a lower risk trade.

* The hotpage does not trade all the setups, only certain ones are taken and they are all for teaching purposes, so I can demonstrate to you (live) how to trade using our system, methods, rules and data. My goal is to teach you how to trade using our strategies, not to trade for you.

"Shun passion, fold the hands of thrift. Sit still, and Truth is near: Suddenly it will uplift your eyelids to the sphere: Wait a little, you shall see the portraiture of things to be."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

"When it comes to success in trading, being right most of the time is not nearly as important as is being procedurally right all of the time! "
Floyd W. Upperman Jr. CTA