11/7/04 Brief Update (while I
am working on my evening IMPA Report I'd like to share the following with
you).
The stock market moved higher once
again this last week following a significant increase in plunger formations
(including the Forward plungers in the stock indices and the failed RP which
generated fresh new buy signals on Wednesday last week!
Folks the data has been very clear regarding equities and energy. I presented this outlook prior to 10/27 and in my 10/27 report as well as the number of plunger formations on 10/27 matched previous highs at major turns (broad shifts). Thus we were looking for a top in energy and a corresponding sharp rally in equities via the Q4 bias supported by plunger formations as well as our IMPA selections and detrended studies! The Russell 2000 has been on TOP of my buy list for many weeks (Since August ladies and gentlemen) and once again we see the Russell 2000 topped the list of gainers last week (which you can see in our weekly activity report provided for you to sample below). The weekly activity report presents members with an automated market performance summary (tracking all 45 markets we track and trade) each week. The weekly activity report is updated daily just like our daily activity report. However the weekly report retains the accumulative gains/losses throughout the week and presents the final tally on Friday. The markets that gained the most are on the top of this report followed in descending order. On the bottom of course are the markets that had the largest losses for the week (which are profits of course if you are short). Look at this weekly summary below. Take note that the Russell 2000 is on top with gains of $10,000+ per contract on the week. On the bottom of course are the energy markets, which we have been clearly bearish. Why? Because our system and data has been bearish!
There is no other service that
provides the tool I provide below (our unique and thorough 1 -page weekly
summary). I know that because I created it from scratch! The
"W-$Chg" is the dollar change on the week. I don't care much
about numbers when it comes to market fluctuations and my account, and that's
how virtually all traders feel as well. What do we care about? We care
about the money! How much has our account gained or lost because of these
numbers? A point move in one market might mean $1000 while in another it
may mean $10. Sometimes its difficult to keep it all straight
(particularly if you are new to this). Remember we have 45 markets to
track. I provided the "W-$Chg" to help us all, new
and seasoned traders. This column provides the dollar calculated gain/loss
while the column directly to the left of it "W-#Chg", shows the point
change. The point is important for tracking the markets but the $ change
is what our accounts "Feel". Our accounts do not increase or
decease in points, they increase or decease in DOLLARS! I hope this helps!
Lets review the weekly summary now (again this is
available to all members and is another very unique Upperman Tool.
One single long contract in the Russell, S&P, Dow and Nasdaq combined
generated roughly $28,000 in profit last week alone! Likewise one single
short contract in Crude oil, Heating oil, Unleaded Gas and Natural gas combined
generated roughly $15,000 in profit last week alone folks! Coming into the
week as discussed in my report our data was clearly bullish equities and bearish
energy (and I felt stocks would go higher regardless of who won the election as
long as the election process went smoothly, which by and large it certainly
did)! The markets did exactly what our strategies suggested they would
do! These were not simply my opinions, rather this is what our strategies
and data indicated!
All of our charts, graphs and
indicators were built by myself from the ground up! I did all the complex
programming myself! There's nothing else
like it on the web! You don't just get access to my opinions, you get
access to the actual proprietary indicators, graphs, charts and measures from
which my opinions are derived. There are hundreds of services that will
give you opinions, some for FREE! That's how worthless opinions are,
everyone has one. Opinions backed up by true data and actual results are
what really count. You've seen some of the data now and you have seen some
results too! How many other services actually back up their opinions with
REAL proprietary information (unique graphs and measures) like I
do? Sure some services provide nice painted up Gecko charts
with their opinions pasted all over them and/or they may provide re-packaged
FREE barcharts.com charts, but that's not providing anything unique or
new. In this business you need to be unique to gain an edge. One
doest gain an edge by following the same things the other guys are
following. That's why I created all this software in the first place
- To gain a unique view! I couldn't do that using commercially available
software everyone else is using (without reaching the same conclusions everyone
else is reaching and thus the same overall results). To separate from the
pack you have to begin using unique measures and techniques that the pack
(public) is NOT using!
No service (none I can think of)
actually provide an entire toolbox of completely unique and proprietary graphs
and indicators including indicators derived from data unrelated to price!
95% of all small speculators rely on 7 data points. Practically 100% of
their indicators come from some combination of the open, high, low, close,
range, volume and open interest. And obviously this is an important part
of the analysis. However, there MUST be more. You have to compliment that
with fundamental data, seasonal data, cycles or something in order to gain an
edge via a unique mix of data. We provide a very unique mix using the COT
data and SEASONAL data as well as cycles too! Our longer-term COT/Seasonal
graphs show the relationship between seasonal market behavior and the commercial
traders! No one else as these charts (no one that is actually sharing them
anyway). And in fact none of our COT indicators are public
indicators. Our family of COT indicators (IMPA) are based on unique 6-sigma
concepts combined with traditional technical analysis concepts which together provides
us with a completely unique picture of the market.
My measures and indicators are
based on years of work in statistics and data analysis, far exceeding anything
else available to small (individual) traders today. This service IS a one
of a kind service. If you are ready to begin your education or if you are
a professional already and want to compliment your strategies with additional
data and unique strategies, I encourage you to join today. Right now there
appear to be many opportunities and this may continue through Q4, but this
winter it may slow (sometimes it slows during Jan-Feb) - Right now however it is
my opinion (based on the data) that this is an excellent time to be focused on
all of our indicators and graphs!
Sign up for Membership here - Only if ready !
My response on our message board to a
recent question regarding the detrended graphs!
FUA Premium Discussion Forum
MESSAGE: (#10573) ? Floyd: de-trended
AUTHOR: Keith
DATE: Friday, 5 November 2004, at 9:36 a.m.
Floyd,
Thanks for the explanation of the de-trended analysis. I like the simplicity
and clarity of these graphs. They appeal to my statistical training.
Just one silly question, what exactly does de-trended mean? Perhaps it is
obvious, but I don't know. Are we taking a data point from the trend line and
analyzing it in relation to other points, but not the trend itself? To some,
this must sound like listening for the sound of one hand clapping.
Having a good fall, and am STILL long the 10YR. I also had some serious gains
in CL. I just wish I had time to do the daily fader thing. I envy you folks
who can take advantage of such a reliable system.
Keith
Re: ? Floyd: de-trended
Posted By: Floyd In Response To: ?
Floyd: de-trended (Keith)
Date: Friday, 5 November 2004, at 12:47 p.m.
Keith, Detrending is simply the removal of the trending element. Lets look at it with the trend in place and then without.
To see the trend pull-up and view the dashed trend-line on the daily trend/swing price graph in any market that is trending up or down. This line will have a slope, either positive or negative based on the trend. For example, a market trending higher will have a positive slope (dashed trend-line will be pointing higher) and a market trending lower will have a negative slope (dashed trend-line pointing lower).
Next scroll down under the daily trend/swing graph to access the daily detrended study. Notice the same dashed trend-line is on this graph as well. However, the dashed trend-line is now completely horizontal in this graph. In other words the slope (or trend) has been removed. That's detrending.
Detrending enables us to take certain measurements and apply rules based on statistics. If the trend is left in place certain statistical studies can't be performed. The reason is because of skewing in the direction of a trend. Removing the trend removes the skewing also and thus allows one to do certain statistical studies (create a normal histogram for example).
Creating a histogram enables us to monitor and apply 6-sigma type rules. This works well with normally distributed data as a large percentage will fall within +/- 3 standard deviations from a mean (in normally distributed data). When a skew exists the data is not normally distributed (the trend becomes an overwhelming factor). Removing the trend allows one to concentrate on the actual distribution of the data and in trading that allows us to exploit significant natural behavior. Its not magic however, just a tool based on normal probabilities and past behavior (normal behavior being defined from past behavior). Based on past data we know at some point a "regression" back towards the mean is highly likely.
Past performance is no guarantee that it will occur, but its the best map or indication to understand what is likely in the future.
Floyd