Remember to use both Selection and Timing in your trading!

Good evening everyone, 

I am feeling a little under the weather as I write this evening.  I am fighting off the flu or my first real cold of the season (I think its a cold as my sinuses are bothering me).  Anyway,  lets get started. 

Be sure to review the posts on the message board as I discussed briefly some of the work I am doing on spreads (I briefly discussed a new feature which I plan to add to the site probably in Q2 2005).   I am also working on another big project which I will announce later in 2005 as well.  I continue to focus on adding new features and new enhancements to provide additional benefits to your memberships and to this service! 

The latest IMPA selections   
Results based on latest government data! 

UCL/LCL official triggers (buy & sell selections)
* Dates in black indicate a new trigger selection or repeating selection.

FF - The Fed Funds, when listed , is for tracking purposes only.  We do not trade the Fed Funds.


The Markets

The IMPA selections are basically the same as last week with the exception of silver (SI).  Silver (SI) is no longer an official sell selection.  However, the net-com position remains very close to the LCL and close enough in my opinion for it to remain on my radar.  That simple means its close enough that if the price turned down (reverses course significantly, finishing under the 18dma for 2 consecutive days) I'd still consider it an IMPA sell setup.  Right now however the trend is up (with the close above the 18dma as of Friday).  

Energy Markets - Again these markets were poised to move lower following the recent plunger patterns, other formations including detrended over-bought conditions across the board really (energy). A couple weeks back  on 10/27 crude oil (CL) and Natural Gas (NG) both posted reverse plungers.  Once again this week both markets moved lower.  Crude oil (CL) finished the week down $2150 per contract while Natural Gas finished the week down a whopping $7710 per contract ladies and gents!  That's a combined profit of $9860 per contract for who were still short this week following the plunger formations on 10/27 (two weeks ago).  Again these plungers have succeeded as both markets have come down nicely following these formations.   These were not simply plungers either, they were in fact what we call "double-whammy" sell formations ( on Wednesday 10/27).  The "double-whammy" occurred as we had both outside days and reverse plunger formations occurring together (on 10/27).  And again since 10/27 these markets have come down very very nicely. 

In crude (CL) if you were filled at the worst price (lowest price) from the range of suggested entry prices from the daily plunger report you would have sold short at 52.44 on Thursday 10/28.  We closed Friday at 49.61 for a profit of $2830 per contract.  If you have not taken 50% profits yet, you certainly can do so here if you like. However I do recommend you continue to maintain a position (short) as the funds unwind and price comes down (already has come down of course but I believe it can come down more as well).   I do remain bearish overall and let me tell you, selling short at 52.44 certainly wasn't a difficult thing to do (I remember discussing a massive IMPA buy in crude oil in 1998 when it was below $13!).  So in a sense, selling at $52.44 was a lot like buying under $13.  

In natural gas (NG) if you were filled at the worst price (lowest price) from our range of suggested entry prices listed for the natural gas reverse plunger in our daily plunger report for 10/27, you would have sold short at 8.773 on Thursday 10/28.  We closed 7.95 on Friday which equates to a profit of $8230 per contract thus far.  Same thing here, I recommend you take 50% profits if you have not done so yet (I recommend that here if you have not done this yet) and I continue to recommend you maintain a position (your remaining 50%) following our standard position management methodology of trailing profitable stops at this point. 
 

  U.S. equities (S&P500 & Russell Futures) - These markets continued to gain last week following the forward plunger formations in the S&P and ES the week before (on 10/25) and the Forward plunger in the Russell on 10/20.  In addition we had a unique (more rare) follow up buy signal on Wednesday this week as well (11/3).  This one is often explosive!  It is the FAILED reverse plunger buy!  We had reverse plungers in the stock indices on Tuesday (11/2).  These all failed on Wednesday when Tuesday's RP high's were exceeded on the close Wednesday!  That set off another round of buy signals!  Some members noted those during the day Wednesday and others were able to take advantage of them on Thursday.  Both Wednesday and Thursday were strong days (up closes) in these markets. 

For the week here we gained a very very respectable profit (for those long) of $10250 in the Russell and ladies and gentleman that's one contract only.  This follows the respectable gains of $8750 per contract gained the week before last following the 10/20 forward plunger in the Russell.  The S&P500 gained $9350 per contract (profits for those long) this week which is respectable as well and these gains followed the $8600 per contract profit (for those long) the week which was the week of the 10/27 Forward plunger.   Both the Russell and Nasdaq are also IMPA buy setups as well.  The Nasdaq finished the week up $4050 per contract.  Overall the Russell continues to lead.  

This week:  We are in the midst of a Q4 rally, I think that's clear and I think its genuine.  Friday's jobs data was clearly bullish which supports this rally as well.  As you know (those that have been members for awhile know anyway) these Q4 rally's can really surprise people.  In fact some of the largest advances in history have occurred during the fourth quarter!   I remain bullish and I think we could go higher again this week! 

Dollar (DX) - This market can potentially fall further based on the weekly detrended analysis.  On a daily basis it is short-term over-sold, but longer-term we may still continue lower (before we reverse). 

Lumber (LB)  - Notice the recent decline in open interest in lumber.  That decline correlates to the unwinding of fund longs.  And that's part of the reason for the lower price today.  In fact I recommend everyone pull up our FUND graph in lumber.  Take note of the extremely strong correlation between the price (and trend) and the net-fund position.  Notice the Net-Fund:Price relationship works opposite of the Net-commercial:Price relationship.  In the case of Lumber there is a very high correlation (pos) with price (trends) and the net-fund position.  Therefore when the FUND position approaches the UFL (upper Fund Limit) we know the price is likely up with it (possibly near a high and probably near the upper limit on the daily and/or weekly detrended analysis as well).  Of course it works the same with the sell side.  In that case the net-fund position would already be at an extreme (near the Lower Fund limit or LFL) and the price is likely to be at that extreme too (at or near a low with the detrended at or new a low too).  Lets look at the fund graph tonight together. 

Notice how these two studies are in sync with the price structure.  Its a powerful event when the price structures and our statistical formula's provide signals that line up like this (so to speak)!

IMPA Short sell selections and setups
(trending lower)

* The links above are the ONLY place to find OLD Auto-pilot reports (dating back months and years)